Economists likened to climate deniers in Irish unity debate

Economists who believe the initial costs of a United Ireland would be relatively high have been compared to climate change deniers by a Sinn Féin TD.

Thomas Gould made the comments during a Dáil (lower house of Irish parliament) debate on the tax and spending implications of unification.

Those implications are contested, with economists producing a range of scenarios based on different assumptions.

Gould said some people were "using false data and made-up numbers" in an attempt to stop unification.

He singled out Prof John Fitzgerald who in 2024 co-authored a study which looked at how much it costs to deliver public services in Northern Ireland and how those costs could be carried across to a unified state.

Its central estimate was an initial unification cost of €11bn annually (£9.4bn) or about 5% of Irish national income, meaning tax increases, more borrowing or spending cuts would be needed in the newly unified state.

A response to that paper from the political scientist Prof John Doyle, which used different assumptions, suggested a much lower annual cost of around €2.5bn.

Gould said: "For years, when we talked about climate change, climate change deniers were rolled out to give their opinions, even though all the science was against them.

"Now, we have that happening here, where we know the data and the positive implications Irish unity could have but we are allowing false data to come in to skew the conversation."

Earlier, the Irish finance minister and Tánaiste (deputy prime minister) Simon Harris said transition to a unified state would come with considerable cost and complexity but it was neither possible nor intelligent to reduce that to a single number.

He said the economics effects of unification would be dynamic and the debate should be "framed about what we are capable of building north and south."

He added: "The fiscal position in year one would, of course, not remain static. Over time, costs and revenues would evolve as both economies adapt, grow and become integrated.

"How these opportunities are managed, and the extent to which these benefits are realised, will be the key determinant of the long-term fiscal impact.

"In other words, these outcomes are not predetermined. They will be shaped by the policy choices we make, the policies we pursue and the decisions we make."

Last week Harris' Fine Gael party and his government partners Fianna Fáil voted down a Sinn Féin proposal aimed at planning for a united Ireland.

The focus of the proposal was a citizens' assembly on a united Ireland, which would have seen 99 citizens get together and debate the pros and cons of Irish unity, with a moderator.

The other part of the law would have put the onus on the taoiseach (Irish prime minister) to come up with a green paper on preparation for Irish unity which would cover topics from the economy to health and housing.