Ruthless plotter? Flip-flopper? Dad dancer? Insiders reveal the real Andy Burnham

Who is Andy Burnham? There are plenty of labels to pick from.

King of the north, the well-liked mayor of Greater Manchester. Ruthless plotter – the man who led a shadow revolt to oust the prime minister.

Gig-goer. Everton fan and season ticket holder, who wants to try and sit in the stands even when he is running the country.

Poetry lover. Experienced former cabinet minister. Cambridge graduate.

Flip-flopper – a charge chucked at him by political critics.

Deeply proud family man and centrist dad, unafraid to display his moves to True Faith by New Order, the track he picked to play at an event to celebrate taking over the Labour Party.

The 56-year-old is going to become the 59th prime minister on Monday.

To understand who he is, I've spoken to more than 20 people who have worked with him over the last few decades – old friends and rivals, as well as current and former cabinet ministers.

Burnham is unusual in politics because even colleagues who are furious that he ousted Sir Keir Starmer say he is an affable and decent person.

But does he have the experience and skills to pick Labour's morale up off the floor, and tackle the deep problems the country has?

One old friend wonders: "He is a lovely bloke, but I just don't know if he is up to it – that is the honest question."

Being Mr Nice Guy isn't enough to be an effective prime minister in a confusing and brutal political era.

But you can be ruthless with a smile, and Andy Burnham is willing to follow advice from one of the most effective leaders of recent decades – not one of the prime ministers, but Sir Alex Ferguson.

I'm told the former Manchester United boss bumped into Burnham and wanted to chat politics.

He wanted to know why there had been so much bad blood and briefing between Tony Blair and Gordon Brown, saying if he'd been Blair, he would have "got him in a room, and said, you're either with me, or you can sod off". The actual phrasing he used was far ruder than that – but you get the drift.

A close ally of Burnham told me: "We might need the Ferguson hairdryer – this is our moment and we might have to tell people, if you're not with me, well bye, and thanks for your time."

Another colleague says Burnham is absolutely determined to set the direction of the new government, and "will be all over every one and everything and there will only be room for his agenda".

What looks like a decision to allow new drilling for oil and gas in the North Sea seems to be evidence of that, as it goes totally against the desire of current Energy Secretary Ed Miliband, one of the cabinet ministers who helped Burnham by telling Sir Keir that time was up.

Highlighting the example, they told me: "Burnham is ruthless in every way - Ed helped lever him in - and the first keynote policy is a slap in the face – he looks cuddly to the public but he is a total hammer."

For all the happy vibes and dad dancing at the Labour event yesterday, in the party there are real doubts about whether Burnham is up to the mark.

His career started in Westminster decades ago. After a short spell as a journalist on trade magazines, even one named Tank World, he went into Parliament as a researcher to the former minister Tessa Jowell, then stood as an MP, and before long became a junior minister, quickly rising up the ranks to the cabinet in 2007 when he became chief secretary to the Treasury.

Burnham was popular but didn't always feel at home.

One old friend remembers that era, of political success for the Labour Party and huge opportunities for a new generation, saying "we were northern hicks who bizarrely found ourselves in the crazy Westminster world – it was a heady time".

While well-liked, some in the party saw him as flimsy, with all the chat, but not the substance.

One of his old bosses, Alistair Darling, the chancellor during the financial crisis, once memorably told me with affection, but in frustration, "Andy? He's like a lorry on ice", because his thinking swerved around.

An ally concedes: "He has that strong sense of self – but it does waver sometimes."

One cabinet minister worries he might wobble when things get tough.

Talking about Burnham's desire to be popular, they told me: "He enjoys being liked in a way that Keir was never that bothered about. There will be a strength in that because he'll take seriously the need to connect, but wanting to be liked when you are prime minister can be a distraction because it can be destabilising when the inevitable happens and you are not popular."

But claims that Burnham doesn't stick to his convictions are an irritation to some others. One source says: "Flip-flop Burnham did my head in, it wasn't flip flopping, when things were changing from five years earlier, he had the courage to change."

By all accounts, where he really changed was through his experience in Manchester. There is a marked difference in conversations with colleagues whose recollections are based on his time in Westminster, or Burnham 2.0 in the North West of England.

Leaving Westminster after trying and failing twice to become party leader was a huge decision, a gamble for a career politician who had unfinished business, but credited by many of those who know him as a liberation.

One cabinet minister explains: "Whether people believe it or tease him about it, it's true that leaving being an MP to go to Manchester meant he could be himself – people forget the New Labour world where there was such conformity".

There, established as mayor with huge powers over transport, health, skills and education, Burnham was able to build on the big decisions made by previous council leaders, and create a sense of progress in the region.

While his record in Manchester perhaps doesn't exactly match the excitable hype and you can read more about what it means here, Burnham's political success has been remarkable, and it has given him a concrete set of beliefs that it is where you live, not how you vote that matters – get used to hearing "place not party".

One ally describes this as one of Burnham's trademarks, telling me he was a "brilliant leader of teams, and that included Conservative and Lib Dem council leaders".

"He can do that in government with a cabinet of all the talents. He is not factional in the party, and he wants to work cross party with the others too. He is just not tribal."

He's also promising to listen more closely to Labour MPs, and not to play favourites or pick one side of the party over another.

Another ally says: "He means it when he wants a different approach in the party – he doesn't want a narrow clique."

It's true that for years he has tried publicly to stay out of Labour internal wrangling, styling himself as a loyalist – which didn't always go down well.

The first time he ran to be party leader in 2010, at an event in Northern Ireland he told the crowd: "I am not a factional politician. I was loyal to Tony Blair. I was loyal to Gordon Brown. I am a loyalist."

One member piped up, "you might want to rethink that line over here".

Burnham takes over a fractured and fractious Labour Party, and the task of pulling it back together is enormous.

The atmosphere right now is hopeful, with one senior figure telling me the optimism around Burnham "feels like a family wedding but it depends what happens after. Andy can't just give the love to everyone".

Another told me: "MPs have to be committed to this and keep their eyes on their seats not their egos."

The threat to Labour from Reform is plain and his allies hope that by reminding Labour of the gravity of the challenge they face, he will be able to keep the party's factions together.

What will his approach be? One of his supporters said "it won't be you have to be an Andy Burnham clone – or an Andy supporter, but what he will expect is that even if you do have different views, you have to get behind the leader of the team".

Has he run a team successfully? He has before. Is he a confident politician? Absolutely. Is it clear what he believes in? Yes, that too. But that's very different to knowing how he will apply those beliefs to specific decisions.

One current cabinet minister told me Burnham is "replete with political and relationship skills. But on his political project? We're still learning".

Another told me: "You can't say with any certainty what kind of politics he is going to pursue."

More bluntly, one party insider spluttered his team has "no clue" what they are going to do in many different parts of government.

Remember that initially Burnham wanted to move into No 10 in September, which would have given him a lot more time to prepare.

We know the kind of politician Andy Burnham is. He has enjoyed huge success and is a leader who thrives on human contact, is relaxed on camera and who has extensive experience in different jobs and a strong set of his own beliefs.

But none of that guarantees he'll lead Labour to recover, let alone the enormous task of helping a grumpy country thrive.

One former minister highlights the gulf between any of his former jobs, and what faces him on Monday – "as a mayor and cabinet minister Andy is used to taking decisions, the difference is the scale, variety and above all else the pace at which they come at a prime minister".

Another party insider told me: "We just don't yet know if he can find more gears to transcend mayoral politics, take on a spluttering, post-Brexit economy and turn it into a global competitor able to fund the kind of social programmes Labour voters expect."

The landscape is tough. Another cabinet minister predicts "what he'll find hard is the fiscal situation – there are a set of winners and losers with every decision, and people's expectations are so high".

And his team are well aware the public is impatient and unimpressed with Labour – "we have six, maybe eight months where people might take another look".

Another minister worries the removal of Sir Keir means "it's a distinct possiblity there'll be another leader before the next general election".

"We've set the bar so low, removing Starmer over bad poll ratings, now Andy's set expectations too high for himself – that's his strategy – he has always made a grand entrance."

Andy Burnham's actual entrance into No 10 is now only days away.

Inevitably there is a lot that we don't know, not least who'll take which seat in his cabinet, and indeed whether Axel, the Burnham family dog, will move into No 10 too, a new rival for Larry the cat.

But as the removal vans rev up again in Downing Street, Burnham's arrival gives Labour a "second chance to make a first impression", according to one minister.

An opportunity he has craved for decades. Yet another prime minister for us all.

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