Ko barazanar Houthi ta rufe Bab al-Mandab ka iya haddasa sabon rikicin jigila a tekun Maliya?

Sabuwar barazanar da mayaƙan Houthi na Yemen suka yi ta toshe hanyar ruwa ga jiragen ruwan Saudiyya a mashigin Bab al-Mandab ta ƙara tayar da hankula kan yiwuwar sake samun tangarɗa ga harkokin kasuwancin duniya.

Bayan Iran ta dakatar da zirga-zirgar jiragen ruwa ta mashigin Hormuz, yanzu kuma ƙawayenta a Gabas ta Tsakiya na barazanar buɗe wani sabon fagen rikici, a ɗaya gefen yankin Larabawa.

Mayaƙan Houthi, waɗanda Iran ke marawa baya kuma ke iko da arewacin Yemen, sun sanar da ƙaƙaba "katanga" ga ƙawar Amurka, Saudiyya a mashigin Bab al-Mandab, wata muhimmiyar hanyar ruwa da ke haɗa tekun Aden da tekun Maliya, wadda kuma ke kaiwa ga Mashigin Suez.

Kimanin kashi 12 cikin 100 na ɗanyen man da ake jigila ta ruwa a duniya na bi ta wannan hanyar ne.

A ranar Litinin 20 ga Yulin 2026, kakakin Houthi Yahya Sarea ya ce matakin nasu martani ne ga Saudiyya saboda ta kulle tashoshin jiragen ruwa da filayen jiragen sama a yankunan da Houthi ke iko da su.

Sai dai Ma'aikatar Harkokin Wajen Saudiyya ta musanta zargin tare da bayyana cewa ƙasar "za ta ɗauki duk matakan da suka dace domin kare jiragen ruwanta bisa dokokin ƙasa da ƙasa".

Yemen dai na fama da yaƙe-ƴake tun bayan yaƙin basasa a shekarar 2014 bayan Houthi sun ƙwace iko da babban birnin ƙasar, Sanaa. Rikicin ya ƙara tsananta a shekarar 2015 lokacin da ƙawancen ƙasashen Larabawa ƙarƙashin jagorancin Saudiyya suka shiga yaƙin domin dawo da gwamnatin Yemen kan mulki.

Majalisar Ɗinkin Duniya ta ce rikicin ya yi sanadin mutuwar fiye da mutum 150,000, yayin da sama da mutum miliyan 22 ke buƙatar tallafin jin ƙai.

Sai dai babban abin tambaya a yanzu shi ne ko Houthi na da ƙarfin da za su iya hana jiragen ruwan Saudiyya zirga-zirga ta mashigin Bab al-Mandab.

Mai fashin baƙi kan harkokin Gabas ta Tsakiya a cibiyar bincike ta Chatham House da ke Landan, Farea al-Muslimi, ya shaida wa BBC cewa mayakan Houthi na da ƙarfin soji da zai iya haifar da cikas ga zirga-zirgar jiragen ruwa.

"Houthi na da nakiyoyin ruwa, sannan kuma sun bunƙasa amfani da jiragen ruwa marasa matuƙa a cikin ƴan shekarun nan," in ji shi.

Za kuma su niya dagula lamura ba tare da sun toshe mashigin gaba ɗaya ba.

"Abin da kawai suke buƙata shi ne su kai hari guda ɗaya. Ko da harin gargaɗi ne kawai, hakan zai jefa kamfanonin jigilar kaya da masu samar da mai cikin fargaba. Wannan kaɗai ya isa ya haddasa illa fiye da yadda mutane ke zato," in ji Muslimi

Ya ƙara da cewa dabarar Iran bayan yaƙin ita ce ta matsa wa ƙawayen Amurka a yankin lamba, tare da ƙoƙarin jawo sauran ƙasashe cikin rikicin.

Shi ma wani mai fashin baƙi kan harkokin Yemen, Anwar al-Ansi, ya ce Houthi na aiwatar da abin da Iran ke so ne domin tilasta wa Saudiyya shiga rikicin.

Ya ce, "Iran na son a ci gaba da wannan rikicin ne saboda shi ne zaɓin da ya rage mata a yanzu. Saudiyya ta yi ƙoƙarin kauce wa faɗa da ita, amma idan Houthi suka kai hari, dole ne ta ɗauki mataki domin kare muradunta."

Me ya sa mashigin Bab al-Mandab ke da muhimmanci?

Mashigin Bab al-Mandab na tsakanin Yemen a gefen yankin Larabawa da kuma Djibouti da Eritrea a nahiyar Afirka. Duk jiragen ruwan da ke fitowa daga Tekun India da Tekun Aden zuwa Mashigin Suez dole ne su bi ta wannan hanya.

Mashigin mai tsawon kusan kilomita 115 da faɗin kilomita 36 na ɗaya daga cikin muhimman hanyoyin kasuwanci a duniya tun bayan buɗe Mashigin Suez a shekarar 1869, wadda ita ce mafi gajartar hanyar ruwa tsakanin Turai da Asia.

Tekun Maliya na daga cikin hanyoyin ruwa mafi cunkoso a duniya, inda kusan kashi 25 cikin 100 na zirga-zirgar jiragen ruwa ta duniya ke bi ta cikinsa.

Yayin da aka samu matsala a mashigin Hormuz, wanda kekusan kashi 20 na jigilar ɗanyen mai a duniya ke bi ta hanyar, rufe Bab al-Mandab zai sake kawo cikas ga wani kashi 12 na jigilar mai a duniya.

Hukumar Makamashi ta Amurka (EIA) ta ce kusan ganga miliyan biyar na ɗanyen mai daga Gabas ta Tsakiya da Asia zuwa ƙasashen Yamma na ratsawa ta wannan mashigi a kowace rana.

Haka kuma kusan kashi takwas na iskar gas ɗin LNG da ake jigila ta ruwa a duniya na bi ta Bab al-Mandab, lamarin da ya sa mashigin ke da matuƙar muhimmanci ga samar da makamashi a duniya.

Tun bayan da aka rage zirga-zirga ta mashigin Hormuz sakamakon rikicin, muhimmancin Bab al-Mandab ya ƙaru. Saudiyya ta fara amfani da shi wajen fitar da ɗanyen man da ake kaiwa tashar Yanbu ta bututun mai daga gabashin ƙasar.

Baya ga jigilar mai da iskar gas, mashigin na cikin babbar hanyar kasuwanci tsakanin Gabas da Yamma, inda jiragen dakon kaya da dama ke bi ta cikinsa a kullum.

Idan aka rufe mashigin Bab al-Mandab, hakan zai iya haifar da matsala irin wadda ta faru a shekarar 2021, lokacin da jirgin dakon kaya na Ever Given ya toshe Mashigin Suez, abin da ya haddasa tsaiko ga harkokin kasuwanci a duniya tare da ƙara farashin kaya da jinkirta isar da mai da sauran kayayyaki.

Wace rawa Houthi za su iya takawa?

Akwai yiwuwar duk wani hari da za kai a Bab al-Mandab, mayakan Houthi da Iran ke marawa baya a Yemen, su ne za su kai shi.

Wani jagoran Houthi ya shaida wa kamfanin dillancin labarai na Reuters cewa ƙungiyar "a shirye take a fannin soji" domin kai hare-hare a Bab al-Mandab don nuna goyon baya ga Iran.

A ranar 28 ga Maris, Houthi sun kai hari kan Isra'ila, wanda shi ne karo na farko da suka shiga yaƙin da ke tsakanin Amurka, Isra'ila da Iran. Isra'ila ta ce ta harbo makamai masu linzami guda biyu da aka harba daga Yemen.

Houthi na iko da bakin tekun Yemen da ke gefen Tekun Maliya, kuma sun kai hare-hare a Bab al-Mandab a lokacin yaƙin Gaza. Sun kai hare-hare kan fiye da jiragen dakon kaya 100 da makamai masu linzami da jirage marasa matuƙa, inda suka nutsar da jirage biyu tare da kashe matuƙan jirgin ruwa huɗu.

A watan Nuwamban 2023, ƙungiyar ta yi amfani da jirgin helikwafta wajen ƙwace wani jirgin dakon kaya mallakin wani kamfanin Birtaniya da wani kamfanin Japan ke sarrafawa a Tekun Maliya.

Ko da yake Houthi sun ce jiragen da ke da alaƙa da Isra'ila kaɗai suke kai wa hari, ƙasashe da dama sun bayyana ɓacin ransu game da hare-haren. Hakan ya sa wasu daga cikin manyan kamfanonin jigilar kaya da na mai a duniya suka dakatar da zirga-zirga ta yankin.

Daga baya hare-haren sun ragu, inda Amurka ta ce Houthi sun ja da baya, yayin da Houthi kuma suka ce Amurka ce ta ja da baya. Sai dai masu sharhi na fargabar cewa hare-haren na iya sake dawowa.

Babbar wakiliyar BBC kan harkokin ƙasa da ƙasa, Lyse Doucet, ta ce "dama tuntuni ana sa ran Houthi za su shiga rikicin idan ya ci gaba."

Ta ƙara da cewa, "Har yanzu Houthi, waɗanda ke iko da arewa maso yammacin Yemen, ba su yi amfani da babbar damar da suke da ita ba, wato iya kawo cikas ga zirga-zirgar jiragen ruwa ta mashigin Bab al-Mandab."

A ranar 26 ga Fabrairu, Hukumar Kula da Harkokin Jiragen Ruwa ta Ma'aikatar Sufurin Amurka ta bayyana cewa, duk da cewa Houthi ba su kai hari kan jiragen dakon kaya ba tun bayan tsagaita wuta tsakanin Isra'ila da Gaza a watan Oktoban 2025, har yanzu suna ci gaba da zama barazana ga kadarorin Amurka da kuma jiragen dakon kaya da ke zirga-zirga a yankin.

Zirga-zrigar jiragen ruwa na fuskantar barazana

Sunan Bab al-Mandab a Larabci yana nufin "ƙofar hawaye" ko "ƙofar baƙin ciki", sunan da ke nuna haɗarin da ke tattare da mashigar ruwan, saboda igiyar ruwa mai ƙarfi da iska mai ƙarfi ta wurin, ga kuma matsalolin fashin teku da rikice-rikice.

Tsakanin shekarar 2008 zuwa 2012, yankin mashigar Bab al-Mandab da ruwan da ke kewaye da shi ya fuskanci hare-haren fashin teku da dama, musamman daga ƙungiyoyin ƴan fashin teku na Somaliya da suka yi garkuwa da ma'aikatan jiragen ruwa domin neman kuɗin fansa.

Wannan ya sa ƙasashen duniya da kamfanonin jigilar kaya suka ƙara matakan tsaro a yankin.

Rufe wannan mashigin a yanzu na iya ƙara tsananta matsalar makamashi da aka riga aka faɗa ciki sakamakon rikicin mashigin Hormuz.

Dakatar da zirga-zirgar jiragen ruwa a yankin Tekun Fasha ya sa farashin man Brent ya tashi daga kusan dala 70 kafin rikicin zuwa sama da dala 115 kan kowace ganga.

Duk wata sabuwar matsala a wata babbar hanyar jigilar kaya a teku na iya ƙara tsadar kayayyaki da kuma rura illolin tattalin arziki saboda rikicin da Iran.

Mohammed Albasha daga kamfanin ba da shawarwari kan tsaro na Basha Report da ke Amurka, ya ce har yanzu ba a san ko ƙungiyar Houthi za ta fara kai hari kan jiragen da ke zuwa Saudiyya ba.

"Ko da ba a kai hari kan wani jirgin ruwa ba, sanarwar barazanar kaɗai na iya kawo cikas ga harkokin sufuri da kuma haifar da rashin tabbas ga tashoshin jiragen ruwa na Saudiyya," a hirarsa da Reuters