Image source, PA Media

Keir Starmer stepping down would not be a shock following poor polling since May's local elections, says Sophie Stowers, from the research and polling organisation More in Common.

Stowers tells Radio 4's Today Programme that More in Common's polling showed that more than half of people questioned believed Starmer should step down as PM after May's elections.

“So it’s not necessarily a shock if the prime minister does decide to leave,” she says.

She says “most” people in that same poll said they would like to see a general election “earlier rather than later”.

“But they are split on whether that means an election should be held immediately or just at some point ahead of schedule before 2029,” she adds.

Labour MPs have "completely blown it" and "lost the confidence of the country" after waiting for 14 years to get into power, the Conservatives' shadow Northern Ireland secretary says.

Speaking to BBC Breakfast, Alex Burghart says Prime Minister Keir Starmer is a "completely busted flush".

Should Starmer resign, Burghart warns the period of instability that might follow would be "very bad for the United Kingdom", adding "we can’t be a country that changes PM every few years".

Despite welcoming rumours of Starmer's exit, the Tory MP suggests Andy Burnham, the figure mooted to replace him, won't have a much better relationship with the Conservative Party.

Burghart explains his party is prepared to work with anyone "who takes difficult decisions on welfare", but says "everything we've seen about Andy Burnham is that he would like to do the opposite".

All eyes are on Downing Street this morning, with the expectation that Keir Starmer could say something about his future.

Here is a reminder of some of what we heard over the weekend:

On Sunday morning, Business Secretary Peter Kyle told Sunday with Laura Kuenssberg that Keir Starmer is reflecting on the "political realities".

Our political correspondent Nick Eardley says Kyle’s messaging marked a change in tone from the government. He wasn’t repeating the prime minister’s insistence from Friday that he would continue.

Donald Trump also weighed in, asserting that Starmer "will resign" having "failed badly" on immigration and energy in a post on Truth Social. No 10 tells the BBC Starmer has not spoken to Trump this weekend.

Image source, PA Media

Henry Zeffman
Chief political correspondent

If Keir Starmer does resign, one of the most important questions is that of timing - when would the next prime minister take over?

Increasingly, many in Labour anticipate a “coronation”, which means Andy Burnham would be the only candidate.

Some influential figures in Burnham's camp want him to take over around the time of the annual Labour conference in late September, believing this would give him more space to prepare for government and ensure he can hit the ground running if he becomes prime minister.

But other leading supporters of the former Greater Manchester mayor believe that timetable is far too slow, arguing that an interregnum of three months would grind government to a halt as speculation about what exactly Burnham's plans for government could be build into a frenzy.

For now, the most important voice in that is Starmer: he may be so angry at how he’s been treated by Labour MPs that he’d rather go sooner than later, or he may see the appeal of using the next few months to secure specific policies he sees as central to his legacy.

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Andy Burnham - the newly-elected Labour MP for Makerfield - could be the next prime minister.

He was the mayor of Greater Manchester for the past nine years, and has had a seat in Parliament before, representing Leigh from 2001 - 2017.

He has twice run to be Labour leader, in 2010 and 2015, and lost both times.

Here the BBC's Ben Wright takes a look at Burnham's life and political career.

Henry Zeffman
Chief political correspondent, reporting from Downing Street

It is important to emphasise that this morning we still do not know that Sir Keir Starmer is going to resign.

But we do know that an imminent resignation is the widespread expectation throughout government. That has been widely reported throughout the media for more than 24 hours now and Downing Street has done little to dampen the speculation.

Should Starmer resign, it would be our sixth prime ministerial resignation since David Cameron announced his departure the morning after the Brexit referendum (which was 10 years ago tomorrow).

That is an extraordinary rate of prime ministerial churn.

There’ll be plenty of discussion to come about the causes of that chaos: chaos which Starmer’s Labour promised to end.

Image source, Reuters

Jon Kay
BBC Breakfast

Anything could happen during BBC Breakfast this morning; we are poised in Downing Street.

The world's media are already here too, at 6 o'clock on a Monday morning.

I've never seen it quite this busy so early.

• You can watch our live coverage in our stream at the top of the page

Henry Zeffman
Chief political correspondent

The prime minister is in Downing Street this morning, having returned from his weekend at Chequers, his country residence in Buckinghamshire.

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The pressure on Starmer ramped up considerably after the local elections in May, in which Labour lost almost 1,500 councillors in England and the party lost power in Wales, while recording its worst ever result for the Scottish Parliament.

However, discontent had been rising long before the elections, including over his decision to change direction on three major policies in a month last year.

Starmer's decision to appoint Lord Peter Mandelson as UK ambassador to the US also led to questions about his judgement. Lord Mandelson was sacked after new information came to light about the depth of his relationship with the late convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein.

While Starmer had been vowing to fight any leadership challenge, the tone shifted after Burnham beat Reform UK in Makerfield on Thursday and increased Labour's majority, bucking a recent trend of electoral losses.

That led to cabinet ally Peter Kyle saying on Sunday the prime minister was considering "political realities".

All eyes on No 10 - what does the PM say, and when?published at 05:37 BST 22 June

05:37 BST 22 June

Chris Mason
Political editor

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For the third time in four years, we appear on the brink of a prime minister announcing their plan to leave office, not because they have lost a general election but because their own party has concluded they would be better off without them.

Many people within government and in the wider Labour Party expect Sir Keir Starmer to say just this, perhaps as soon as this morning.

His premiership, in the eyes of many on his own side, has been deflating for months.

Burnham's victory last week – and the scale of it – uncorked the bottle of Labour Party dissent that had been constrained by the by-election campaign.

The prime minister spent the weekend mulling his options, knowing he was, frankly, running out of them.

We know of at least four cabinet ministers – the home and foreign secretaries among them – to have told Starmer he should set a timetable for his departure.

Read Chris's analysis here.

Sir Keir Starmer dominates the front pages of Monday's front pages, with every paper believing his time in No 10 is up.

The Guardian reports that he is expected to announce a timetable for his departure this morning, while the Mirror declares it's "game over" for Starmer on its front page.

And while the Daily Telegraph reports that Burnham plans to become prime minister by September, the Independent quotes US President Donald Trump as saying the PM "will resign".

See all of Monday's front pages here.

Joe Pike
Political correspondent

Image source, Getty / PA Media

Sir Keir Starmer could announce a timetable for his departure from Downing Street as soon as this morning.

The prime minister has been under mounting pressure to quit since Andy Burnham’s victory at the Makerfield by-election last week.

All weekend Labour politicians kept largely silent - leaving the prime minister to mull his political mortality at Chequers.

Today that is likely to end, with senior government figures expecting Starmer to announce both his resignation, and a plan to hand over to his successor.

It is unclear whether that could last weeks or even months. While a leadership contest is possible, a coronation looks increasingly likely - with Burnham the probable beneficiary. He is due to be sworn in as an MP in the Commons chamber this afternoon.

If the UK does get a new prime minister - its fifth in four years - a new cabinet will be appointed and a new policy platform set out. Opposition parties are likely to question whether Starmer's successor has the mandate.

Stay tuned as we bring you all the latest developments and analysis throughout the day.