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How much luck do you need to win the World Cup?

Investigating the role of random chance in football

As the 2026 World Cup approaches its end, what is the biggest factor in who wins? Is it extraordinary moments of attacking magic? Gritty defensive organisation? Or is it all just a question of luck and random chance?

We look at how mathematicians and analysists make sense of chaos, xG and unpredictability in the beautiful game.

If you've seen a number in the news you think we should take a look at, email the team: moreorless@bbc.co.uk

CONTRIBUTORS:

Ian Graham, former Head of Research at Liverpool FC
David Sumpter, Professor of Applied Mathematics at Uppsala University
Luis Nunes Vincente, Mathematician at Lehigh University

CREDITS:

Presenter: Lizzy McNeill
Producer: Josh McMinn
Series producer: Tom Colls
Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown
Sound mix: Dave O'Neill
Editor: Richard Vadon

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9 minutes

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Tomorrow 00:50
BBC World Service Australasia

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